More chronic illnesses, more
diseases of old age, consumers demanding more quality and safety, physicians no
longer in typical private practice, and high deductible health care polices are
each about to cause major changes in the practice of medicine and how it is
delivered to patients. Will this come about smoothly or, more likely, with some
serious hand wringing?
Health care delivery will
change substantially in the coming years. This is not because of reform but
rather due to a set of drivers that are exerting a great push and pull to the delivery
system. Some of these changes will be quite transformational and some will be
very disruptive of the status quo. What are these drivers?
One of the most important is
that there will be many more individuals with chronic illness. The Milliken
Institute offered a white
paper a few years ago on chronic illnesses and noted that nearly one half of Americans had one or more
chronic illnesses, most of them preventable and
which were costing the economy over $1 trillion per year and rapidly
rising.
These are diseases like
diabetes with complications, heart failure, cancer, or chronic lung disease.
What is apparent is that they are mostly due to adverse lifestyles. Eating a
non-nutritious diet -- and too much of it combined with a sedentary existence
leads to obesity. One third of Americans are overweight and another one third
are frankly obese. Add to this chronic stress and that 20% still smoke and
there is an effective recipe to produce chronic illnesses. Chronic illnesses
will make up a greater and greater proportion of all medical ailments as time
goes on. And of course they are more difficult to manage, generally last a
lifetime and are inherently expensive to treat (although there is much that can
be done to reduce the costs of care.)
A second driver of change is
the aging of the population. The American society is growing older and just
like a car: “Old parts wear out.” Aging
brings on visual and hearing impairments, mobility difficulties and diseases
like osteoarthritis, Alzheimer’s and other chronic illnesses that, as best we
know today, are not due to adverse lifestyles but are tied into the aging
process.
Another driver is the
increasing demand for medical services. Perhaps this is saying the same thing
another way. More aging and adverse lifestyles create more disease and the need
for care.
Consumerism is becoming –
finally – more and more of a driver of change. Patients are coming to want and expect to be treated like a valued
customer. Like the movie where he shouted “I can’t take it any more,” now “the patient
is no longer willing to be patient any more.” What do the patients want? They
want service, good service. They increasingly understand that quality and
safety are not ideal so they are looking for and expecting high levels of quality
& safety. Perhaps the most important one of all is respect, respect for
their person, confidentially, and the quality of their care. But also patients
want convenience & responsiveness. They don’t want to have to travel long
distances, wait long times in the “waiting room,” nor be put on indefinite
telephone hold. They want interaction by email and other electronic
methods. And finally, patients increasingly expect to
have a closing of the information gap – they expect the playing field between
patient and doctor to be much more level in the future.
Professional shortages are also
definite drivers of change in the delivery system. There have been shortages of
nurse and pharmacists noted for more than a decade. More and more there is a
shortage of primary care physicians (PCPs) and also general surgeons. These
shortages are more acute in rural areas and urban poor areas.
Combined with shortages are
changes in professional aspirations and lifestyles. More and more physicians
want and expect to have more time for family and recreation. And they no longer
want to run their own private practices. They prefer to be employed with little
if any administrative burdens. Indeed the number of PCPs in a typical private
practice arrangement has declined precipitously in recent years. And since so
many patients coming to the ER today are uninsured, many physicians are no
longer willing to take call unless on a contract with the hospital. Most
physicians are willing to accept that some patients will be of limited means
but they are not wiling to be overwhelmed with non paying patients.
And among many other drivers
of change is that patients will have greater requirements toward a direct share
of costs. Today we have mostly “prepaid” health care, meaning that our
insurance covers most everything, minus a low deductible or co-pay, from
routine exams and well baby care all the way to a heart transplant. Among
employer sponsored plans, there is an increasing push toward high deductible
plans, with deductibles in the $1000-2000 range. Even some Medigap plans have
high deductibles corresponding with much lower premiums.
These are but a few of the
drivers that will change the delivery of health care in dramatic ways in the
years ahead. I discuss them in much more detail in The Future of Health Care Delivery – Why It Must Change and How It Will
Affect You with data obtained through over 150 in-depth interviews of
medical leaders from across the country.
It is fair to expect that physicians, patients, hospitals, insurers and
employer/government sponsors will be challenged to adapt.
My next post will examine
what these drivers of change will actually cause to happen to the delivery
system.