There will be some very
disruptive and some transformational changes in the way health care is
delivered, not as a result of reform, but as a result of the drivers of change
described previously. They included an aging population, an obese society,
shortages of doctors, and emerging consumerism, among others.
As a result of those
previously discussed drivers of change, here is some what we can expect to
occur in the coming years.
First, there will be many
more patients needing substantial levels of medical care. These won’t be just
any patients but two specific groups that are growing rapidly. Americans are
aging. “Old parts wear out” and there are impairments in vision, hearing,
mobility, bone strength, dentition and cognition that become more prevalent
with age. And of course our society has many adverse lifestyles such as
consuming too much of a non-nutritious diet, being sedentary, being chronically
stressed and 20% still smoke. These all lead to chronic illnesses like diabetes
type II, heart failure, cancer, chronic lung and kidney disease, etc. So there
will many more individuals with chronic illnesses. The especially sad thing is
that many of these individuals will be moderately young as a result of obesity
since one third are overweight and another one third are frankly obese. (And
now that the AMA has specifically listed obesity as a disease rather than just
a predisposer to disease, then the number of Americans with chronic illnesses
jumps dramatically.) This increase in chronic diseases and the impairments of
aging will have huge impacts on care delivery.
Of course, more and more care
is and can be done out of hospital. But with many more patients in need of care
for serious chronic illnesses, there will be a need for more high tech hospital
beds, ICUs, ORs, and interventional radiology. This is different than the
mantra of recent decades which proclaimed that there are too many hospitals and
too many beds. Now it is the just the reverse. This too is a big change.
But building new hospitals or
new wings or renovations costs a lot of money. So does technology such as the
electronic medical record, new CT or MRI scanners, and the needed technology
for the operating rooms or radiation therapy equipment. To garner the required
money, hospitals will need to access the capital markets. What will smaller
hospitals do that have less ability to enter the credit markets? Merge with
larger systems to get access to capital. So there will be more and more smaller
hospitals merging into larger systems. Indeed there will be few stand alone
community hospitals in the coming years. This is quite a disruptive change.
There is already a shortage
of primary care physicians and this will undoubted accelerate since few are
entering primary care today after medical school and training. In part to compensate, there will be greater
use of NPs and PAs, especially in primary care. Notwithstanding the debate as
to whether NPs can serve as well as MDs in primary care, they can be very
effective and allow the MD to do what he or she is best at doing. Together they
can create an excellent team.
Primary care doctors are
caught in a catch 22. They are in a non sustainable business model.
Reimbursements from insurers have stayed level for years but office and other expenses
have gone up each year. So in order to keep their personal income at least flat,
they need to “make it up in volume” by seeing more patients. This means no
longer visiting their patients in the hospital and in the ER. Instead they wait
for the hospitalist or the ER doctor to call with reports. And they shorten the
time with each patient so they can see 24 to 25 patients or even more each day.
But seeing this many patients
means they cannot give comprehensive preventive care and cannot adequately coordinate the care of
their patients with chronic illnesses – two of the key things a PCP should be
doing for optimum quality care. It is the absence of time – time to listen,
time to prevent, time to coordinate and time to just think – that is the
critical issue.
There are at least two
approaches PCPs are taking to counter this dilemma. One is to no longer accept
insurance and rather expect patients to pay a reasonable fee at each visit. Pay
at the door. It cuts out a lot of haggling with the insurer and means they can
spend more time with the patient. Importantly, it recreates a normal, typical
professional-client relationship since the patient, not the insurer, is paying
the doctor directly. But this is
certainly a disruptive change to not accept your insurance! It is like going
back a few decades.
Another approach gaining
rapid popularity is to switch to retainer based practices, sometimes called
concierge or boutique practices. The basic concept is to limit one’s practice
to 500 patients rather than the typical 2000 or more. This means more time per
patient. So in return for a fixed fee of about $1500-2000 per year the PCP
agrees to be available by cell phone 24/7 and by email. He or she will see you
in the office within 24 hours of a call. You get as much time as needed for the
problem at hand. And the PCP will visit you in the hospital, the ER or the
nursing home – maybe even do a house call.
The result is better quality.
But there is more. Since the doctor now has the time – the patient now gets
much more preventive care attention. And if a patient has a chronic illness,
the PCP will take the very real time needed to coordinate that care. This will
mean much better care from the specialists and will avoid unnecessary tests,
scans and procedures. Better care at less expense. – One more very disruptive and I would say
transformational change occurring in medical care delivery.